One of Iceland’s largest volcanoes may be stirring after nearly three centuries of dormancy. New monitoring data suggest that activity is increasing beneath the ice-covered Öræfajökull volcano in southeastern Iceland—raising concerns about the potential for a future eruption.
Öræfajökull lies beneath a thick glacier and has remained largely quiet since its last recorded eruption in 1727. Historical records also document a major eruption in 1362. In recent months, however, scientists have begun detecting renewed signs of unrest beneath the ice.
Researchers have observed a rise in seismic activity in the area, alongside increased meltwater flowing from the glacier. Elevated sulfur odors have also been reported—another indicator often associated with volcanic gas release.
Aerial surveys have added to the concern. Photographs show the formation of a growing ice cauldron—a bowl-shaped depression in the glacier—directly above the volcano. Such features typically form when heat from below melts ice from the underside, and they are widely considered a warning sign of escalating volcanic activity.
The volcano’s location makes the situation particularly serious. Several communities lie close to the glacier, placing residents within reach of potential eruption hazards. In response, the Icelandic Meteorological Office raised the aviation and hazard alert level to Code Yellow on its five-tier scale.
Volcanic alert levels:
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Grey: Volcano appears quiet, but monitoring is insufficient; unrest cannot be ruled out.
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Green: Activity has ceased; the volcano is in a normal, non-eruptive state.
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Yellow: Elevated unrest; activity increasing and closely monitored.
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Orange: Eruption underway with little or no ash emission.
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Red: Major eruption in progress with significant ash release.
Öræfajökull forms part of Vatnajökull, Iceland’s largest glacier. An eruption here would pose multiple hazards beyond lava and ash. Subglacial eruptions can trigger violent glacial outburst floods—sudden torrents of meltwater capable of devastating nearby infrastructure and landscapes.
A few thousand people live in the immediate vicinity of the volcano, and any confirmed eruption would likely require rapid evacuation.
Concerns are heightened by activity elsewhere in Iceland. Two additional volcanoes have also shown signs of unrest: Bárðarbunga—the country’s largest volcanic system, which last erupted in 2014—and Hekla, located roughly 150 kilometers southeast of Reykjavík.
Past eruptions underscore the broader risks. When Eyjafjallajökull erupted in 2010, vast ash clouds disrupted air travel across Europe and parts of North America for days, grounding flights and affecting millions of passengers.
With multiple Icelandic volcanoes showing renewed signs of activity, scientists continue to monitor the situation closely, watching for any escalation that could signal an impending eruption.
Reference:
Icelandic Meteorological Office — A new ice cauldron in Öræfajökull volcano.